Review

NVIDIA’s AI Dominance Faces New Rivals

  • Updated December 12, 2025
  • Finn Simmons
  • 41 comments

While I maintain a significant position in NVIDIA and remain optimistic about the company and the broader AI sector, recent developments have given me reason to reconsider. Notably, Apple is advancing its Apple Intelligence initiative without allocating any spending toward NVIDIA, opting instead to collaborate with Broadcom on custom chips. Similarly, Anthropic has committed fully to Amazon’s Trainium chips, a departure from the past pattern where major AI funding rounds typically included substantial orders from NVIDIA. This shift could signal a changing landscape.

Additionally, Broadcom’s announcement of plans to construct one million XPU (ASIC) data centers in partnership with hyperscalers underscores the growing momentum toward custom silicon. Although NVIDIA continues to lead competitors like AMD, the trend toward Broadcom’s ASIC solutions—particularly for applications such as recommendation engines at companies like Meta or Amazon—appears both logical and impactful. Given these factors, I am evaluating whether to diversify my portfolio by selling some NVDA stock to invest in AVGO, aiming to capture gains from both the established GPU market and the emerging ASIC trend.

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41 Comments

  1. Reading about Apple and Anthropic moving away from NVIDIA for their custom silicon really hits home, as I’ve been watching the AI chip space closely for my own tech investments. It makes me wonder if the era of a single dominant hardware provider is shifting toward more specialized solutions, which could actually be healthier for innovation long-term. Are you leaning more toward AVGO now, or are you still weighing other factors before adjusting your position?

    1. You’ve hit on a key point about the shift toward specialized solutions, which is exactly what these moves by Apple and Anthropic illustrate. I’m still evaluating my position, as Broadcom’s custom ASIC play is compelling, but NVIDIA’s ecosystem and software moat remain formidable competitive advantages. A practical step is to watch the next earnings calls from both NVDA and AVGO for their capital expenditure forecasts and partner announcements. I’d be curious to hear your take after you review those.

  2. As someone who’s been watching the AI chip space closely for my own investments, the detail about Anthropic fully committing to Amazon’s Trainium chips really stood out to me. It makes me wonder if we’re seeing the early stages of market fragmentation, similar to what happened in the cloud infrastructure sector. I’m now reviewing my own tech holdings to see if they’re too concentrated in one vendor; has anyone else started rebalancing their portfolio because of this trend?

    1. You’ve hit on a key point about market fragmentation, and the Anthropic-Trainium example is indeed a concrete signal of that shift. It’s a prudent move to review your holdings for vendor concentration; I’ve personally started looking at companies like Broadcom, which is enabling this custom silicon trend, as a potential diversifier within the sector. I’d be curious to hear what you uncover in your own portfolio review.

  3. As someone who’s been closely watching the AI chip space, the detail about Anthropic fully committing to Amazon’s Trainium chips really stands out to me—it feels like a tangible crack in NVIDIA’s previously impenetrable ecosystem. I’ve been holding NVDA for years, but this trend toward custom silicon, especially for specific workloads like recommendation engines, has me thinking about rebalancing my own tech holdings. How much of a performance or cost advantage do you think these custom ASICs need to have to truly shift the market long-term?

    1. You’ve pinpointed a crucial detail—Anthropic’s full commitment to Trainium is indeed a significant ecosystem shift. For custom ASICs to shift the market long-term, they likely need a sustained 30-50% cost-performance advantage in specific workloads, which is the threshold that makes enduring the development complexity worthwhile for hyperscalers. Given your thoughts on rebalancing, a practical next step could be to review the revenue breakdown in NVIDIA’s quarterly reports to track how much growth is still driven by classic data center GPUs versus other segments. I’d be curious to hear what you decide after looking into those numbers.

  4. Reading about Apple’s move to custom chips with Broadcom instead of NVIDIA really hits home, as I’ve been watching the chip design space closely for my own tech investments. It makes me wonder if the era of a single dominant AI hardware vendor is starting to fragment, which could actually be healthier for innovation long-term. Are you leaning more towards AVGO now, or are you still weighing other factors in your diversification plan?

    1. You’ve hit on a key point about the potential fragmentation of the AI hardware landscape, which is exactly what makes Broadcom’s custom ASIC partnerships so compelling to watch. While I’m monitoring AVGO closely given these strategic shifts, my current focus is on diversification across the entire silicon stack, including companies enabling custom chip design itself. I’d suggest looking into the semiconductor IP and EDA software sector as a complementary research angle—feel free to share what you find there, as I’m always keen to compare notes.

  5. NVDA is already positioned for the future, while AVGO is not, and AMZN has been lagging for years. A rising tide lifts all boats, but NVDA has climbed so high it may have limited room to grow.

    1. Non-programmers often underestimate NVIDIA’s lead. Having worked with machine learning, large language models, and computer vision, it’s clear that CUDA is NVIDIA’s competitive advantage. There’s no real equivalent—alternatives like OpenCL and ROCm lack comparable adoption.

  6. The global market is large enough to support multiple major players. However, Nvidia stands out with its full-stack platform, spanning hardware, networking, and software, which will be very difficult for competitors to match.

  7. According to NASDAQ, NVDA’s forward P/E for 2027 is 26.8, which I don’t consider too expensive. That said, I hold positions in NVDA, AVGO, and AMD. There’s no need to limit yourself to just one.

  8. I would avoid buying right after a 40% spike unless there’s a clear reason another surge is coming.

    If you’re interested in AVGO, you’ll likely find a better entry point if you’re patient.

    Also, consider who’s manufacturing all those chips for Amazon and what their market cap is.

    1. Broadcom produces custom chips for highly specialized tasks, including AI accelerators. However, this is also true of Qualcomm, Intel, AMD, Marvel, and other semiconductor manufacturers. They do not possess a competitive advantage or a durable moat comparable to NVIDIA’s.

      1. Both NVDA and AVGO are strong contenders in the semiconductor space, but they serve different market segments. NVDA is heavily focused on AI and gaming, while AVGO has a broader portfolio including networking and software. Your choice should align with your investment strategy and risk tolerance.

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