Fairfax County’s first day of satellite early voting saw a robust turnout of 8,031 in-person votes, dispelling concerns of Democratic underperformance. This figure represents approximately 77% of the 2024 peak of 10,450, a notable achievement given the typical decline in participation during post-presidential election years. Historical comparisons reveal a fluctuating pattern: 6,477 in 2021, 5,440 in 2022, 3,532 in 2023, and 2,864 in the 2025 special election.
While some Democratic voters may shift back to Election Day voting post-COVID, Republican turnout is expected to decrease without Trump on the ballot and with the Sears versus Youngkin dynamic. Additional large Northern Virginia counties also reported strong early voting numbers from October 19th to 22nd. The upcoming weekend’s data will be crucial in determining whether this momentum sustains or experiences a rapid decline, but the initial results fall squarely within the projected range of 6,000 to 9,000 votes.